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USDJPY bigger top risk through 115.56/50 support

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USDJPY bigger top risk through 115.56/50 support

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Whipsaw price action Thursday, but capped by modest resistance at 118.09 to highlight pivotal resistance now at 118.06/10 with the setback from 117.95.

This activity after the Wednesday break through numerous chart and retrace supports enhances the bigger topping theme and leaves negative pressure intact to aim still lower through mid-January.

Short-term Outlook - Downside Risks:

  • We see a more negative tone with the bearish threat through 116.07 for the key 115.56/50/45 area.
  • Surrender here would target the chart/ retrace area at 113.85/50.
  • Break here then aims for the bull gap from the start of November 2014 at 112.56/48.

What Changes This? Above 118.86 eases bear risks; through 119.97 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 120.83. 

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 116.07/01; break here aims for the key 115.56/50/45 area, which we would look to hold at first.
  • But above 117.25 targets 117.95 and 118.06/10, with risk up to 118.86, which we would look to cap.

To view the most recent USDJPY report (from Thursday evening, GMT) with screencasts, click here

Daily USDJPY Chart


4 Hour USDJPY Chart


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Steve Miley is The Market Chartist and has over two decades of financial market experience with him. He spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the FX Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and was previously at Merrill Lynch for 15 years; 10 years as a technical analyst, 5 years in Fixed Income sales.

He was 2013 winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy, Runner Up for the same award in 2014 and was the winner of Best FX Research & Strategy 2012 (at Credit Suisse).

Steve is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.

Steve has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, G10 & EM currencies, Equity Indices & Sectors and Commodities and has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum, including Central Banks, Real Money accounts, Hedge Funds and other Global Corporates.



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