A probe higher to another new recovery high Monday, then only a modest dip lower, maintains bullish pressures for this week.
The aggressive Wednesday surge higher to reinforce our bull view, having overcome our next key target at the 78.6% retrace of the entire 2009-11 sell off at 1.2280
This has reinforced the prior break through a key impulse low from 2009 at 1.1981 and the psychological/ option target at 1.2000.
Short-term Outlook - Upside Risks
- We see upside risk for latter January to a key weekly peak from 2009 at 1.2507.
- January overshoot risk is now to the weekly high at 1.2715.
- The Q1 threat is for 1.3000, psychological/option target and even the 2009 cycle high at 1.3063.
Momentum: The 8-day RSI, short-term momentum is OB, but we see scope to go higher this week. Momentum has confirmed the new high.
What Changes This? Below 1.1933 eases bull risks; through 1.1803 signals a neutral tone, quickly shifting negative below 1.1730.
- We see an upside bias through 1.2495; break here aims quickly for 1.2507 and above to 1.2570/76.
- But below 1.2405 opens risk down to 1.2360, which we look to hold.
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Weekly USDCAD Chart
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