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LME Copper Plunge Aims for 5000 into Month-End!

Posted by on in Commodity Chart Updates
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LME Copper Plunge Aims for 5000 into Month-End!

Friday erosion through 5590 (as we had expected) after a setback from 5800/05 leaves negative pressures intact for latter January.

This has already allowed for a push this morning to retest the mid-January spike low at 5353.

The mid-January capitulation sell off saw a break below the 2009 weekly swing low at 5810, the 61.8% retrace of the 2008-2011 rally at 5634 after the previous surrender of a key 2010 weekly low at 6037.5 and psychological 6000.0 set a more bearish tone.

Short-term Outlook - Downside Risks:

  • The latter January threat is back through the 5353 spike low from mid-January.
  • Below sees risk to the 5000 psychological level!!
  • Bigger picture into mid-Q1, through here sees risk to weekly targets from 2009 at 4710 and 4685.
  • The 78.6% retrace of the 2008-2011 rally is at 4395!!

What Changes This? Above 6000 eases bear risks; through 6189 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 6345 .

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for the 5353 cycle low; break here aims for minor targets at 5230 and 5150 ahead of 5000.
  • But above 5500 opens risk up to 5704, which we look to cap.
To view this morning's full Copper report with screencasts, click here
Remember, for a FREE trial of all our Commodity and other reports sign up by clicking here

Daily LME Copper 3 Month Forward Chart


Weekly LME Copper 3 Month Forward Chart


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Steve Miley is The Market Chartist and has over two decades of financial market experience with him. He spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the FX Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and was previously at Merrill Lynch for 15 years; 10 years as a technical analyst, 5 years in Fixed Income sales.

He was 2013 winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy, Runner Up for the same award in 2014 and was the winner of Best FX Research & Strategy 2012 (at Credit Suisse).

Steve is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.

Steve has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, G10 & EM currencies, Equity Indices & Sectors and Commodities and has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum, including Central Banks, Real Money accounts, Hedge Funds and other Global Corporates.



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