A capitulation type sell off last week saw a break below the 2009 weekly swing low at 5810, the 61.8% retrace of the 2008-2011 rally at 5634 after the previous surrender of a key 2010 weekly low at 6037.5 and psychological 6000.0.
We see the risk still lower in January, but maybe corrective bounce risk early this week.
Short-term Outlook - Downside Risks:
- The January threat is back to the 5353 spike low from mid-January.
- Below sees risk to the 5000 psychological level!!
- Bigger picture, through here sees risk to weekly targets from 2009 at 4710 and 4685.
- The 78.6% retrace of the 2008-2011 rally is at 4395!!
What Changes This? Above 6000 eases bear risks; through 6189 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 6345 .
- We see an upside bias for 5800; break here aims for 6000.
- But below 5600 opens risk down to 5510.
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Daily LME Copper 3 Month Forward Chart
Weekly LME Copper 3 Month Forward Chart