Euro STOXX 50 Bear Trend Risks Intact, Whilst Minimally Below 3062/64
European benchmark downside extension bias
· We stated in our last client report that for the start of this week “look for a consolidation, certainly below 3062/64 barriers, likely capped by 3052, but holding above 2994”.
· Whilst capped by 3062/64 we still see a digestion theme and favours a roll back to the bounce price activity from here.
· However, given the critical 2012-14 trend line break last week and push below the 38.2% retrace of the up leg from mid-2013 and April swing low at 3006/05, we see bear pressures intact.
· Into mid-August, we see risk back below 2994 and 2973 for 2962 and 2928.
· Overshoot risk is to the 50% retrace at 2907 and the key March low at 2896.
WHAT CHANGES THIS?
· Above 3062/64 eases bear risks; through 3096/99 signals a neutral tone.
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4 Hour Euro STOXX 50 September Future Chart
Daily Euro STOXX 50 Future (Adjusted Continuation) Chart