A further dip lower as expected on Monday, but then a minor bounce effort reinforced by the post-RBA rebound to signal a small base and for the downside corrective phase to be concluding.
This now sees bias for a rebound back higher into midweek and for the bullish pressures from latter April to resurface.
We still see upside risks for May from the rally through .7938, that defined a base and the push above chart/ retrace resistance at .8027 and .8062 that set a more bullish outlook.
The break above our initial target at .7893, sees an upside bias for .7926.
But below .7800/.7790 opens risk down to .7761 and .7707/02, maybe key .7679, which we would look to try to hold.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook - Upside Risks:
We see a more positive tone with the bullish threat back to the new recovery peak at .8076, then to .8137.
Above here targets key levels at .8224/34 and .8295.
What Changes This? Below .7761 eases bull risks; through .7679 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .7533.
Momentum: The 8-day RSI, short-term momentum has corrected from OB, and we see scope to go higher this week.
To view the full AUDUSD report (from UK Monday evening, pre-RBA) with screencasts, levels and more, click here
Remember, for a FREE trial of our FX and all other reports, sign up by clicking here
2 Hour AUDUSD Chart
Daily AUDUSD Chart