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AUDUSD Bull Tone Intact, Post (and Pre) RBA

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AUDUSD Bull Tone Intact, Post (and Pre) RBA

A further dip lower as expected on Monday, but then a minor bounce effort reinforced by the post-RBA rebound to signal a small base and for the downside corrective phase to be concluding.

This now sees bias for a rebound back higher into midweek and for the bullish pressures from latter April to resurface.

We still see upside risks for May from the rally through .7938, that defined a base and the push above chart/ retrace resistance at .8027 and .8062 that set a more bullish outlook.

For Today:

The break above our initial target at .7893, sees an upside bias for .7926.

But below .7800/.7790 opens risk down to .7761 and .7707/02, maybe key .7679, which we would look to try to hold.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook - Upside Risks:

We see a more positive tone with the bullish threat back to the new recovery peak at .8076, then to .8137.

Above here targets key levels at .8224/34 and .8295.

What Changes This? Below .7761 eases bull risks; through .7679 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .7533.

Momentum: The 8-day RSI, short-term momentum has corrected from OB, and we see scope to go higher this week.


To view the full AUDUSD report (from UK Monday evening, pre-RBA) with screencasts, levels and more, click here
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2 Hour AUDUSD Chart


Daily AUDUSD Chart


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Steve Miley is The Market Chartist and has over two decades of financial market experience with him. He spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the FX Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and was previously at Merrill Lynch for 15 years; 10 years as a technical analyst, 5 years in Fixed Income sales.

He was 2013 winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy, Runner Up for the same award in 2014 and was the winner of Best FX Research & Strategy 2012 (at Credit Suisse).

Steve is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.

Steve has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, G10 & EM currencies, Equity Indices & Sectors and Commodities and has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum, including Central Banks, Real Money accounts, Hedge Funds and other Global Corporates.



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