This report published Sunday evening, ahead of the Chinese trade data and AUDUSD breakdown.
A stall Thursday at the top of a wedge/ channel formation and at retrace/ chart barriers in the .7735/44 area and a move lower, as we had expected, having having stated in our last report "we see bias for a downside reversal below wedge/ trend line support to resurrect the bear theme".
The push through this support has reinforced bearish pressures from the Weekly Gravestone Doji from late March whilst below the 61.8% retrace at .7785 and .7800/10 pivot area.
We see a downside bias for trend line support (.7640); break here aims through for .7627, maybe .7595.
But above .7732 targets .7741/44 and opens risk up to .7785 and the .7800/10 pivot area, which we would look to try to cap.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook - Downside Risks:
For April we see a more negative tone with the bearish threat the new low at .7533 and to the psychological/ option target at .7500.
Below aims for a key chart level from 2009 at .7267.
Through here even sees risk to the 78.6% retracement of the entire 2008-11 rally at .7095.
A taster of the report above. To view the full AUDUSD report (from Sunday) with screencasts, levels and more, click here
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2 Hour AUDUSD Chart